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<text>
<title>
Potential Hot Spots for Future Conflicts Over Water
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Joint Publications Research Service, October 11, 1991
Near East/South Asia: Potential Hot Spots for Future Conflicts
Over Water Examined
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By Hayim A. Raviv [Tel Aviv, Bamahane in Hebrew, 24 Jul 91, pp.
24-27]
</p>
<p> Within 10 to 15 years, the water situation in the Middle
East will become the main focus of violent conflict: as
countries in the region run dry, the battle over water becomes
inevitable. That is the general opinion among many experts both
within the region and outside. It is also the conclusion reached
by studies conducted in the past two years. They foresee a
conflagration likely to break out in one or more of the region's
three principle water systems: the Nile system, which serves
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia; the Euphrates-Hidqal (Tigris) system,
which serves Turkey, Syria and Iraq; and the Jordan-Yarmukh
system, in which Jordan, Syria, and Israel have a stake. The
risks of war over water are ranked in this order: the "hottest"
area of the Euphrates basin, followed by the Jordan basin and
finally the Nile basin.
</p>
<p> Indeed, more than one of these areas has stood on the
threshold of war fought over water problems. In 1974, when it
seemed to Egyptian President Anwar Sadat that Mengistu,
Ethiopia's Marxist ruler, was planning to divert the sources of
the Nile with Soviet assistance, he threatened to dispatch air
force planes to bomb Ethiopia, The same year, Syria and Iraq
nearly came to blows for similar reasons. Syria had built a
number of dams on the Euphrates River, which caused a large
reduction in the flow of the river into Iraqi territory. Iraq
concentrated military forces along the border and threatened to
shell the "Al-Tura" dam in Syria. Only the intervention of Arab
mediators persuaded Syria to increase the allocation of water
flowing into Iraq. The Iraqi threat was diffused. For years,
water disputes have burdened Syria's relations with Iraq on one
border and with Turkey on another. Tensions have often risen to
the breaking point. On the eve of the Gulf war, Saddam Husayn
accused Turkey of violating international water laws. In an
interview King Husayn granted "the Independent" two years ago,
he declared that he would not hesitate to go to war over water.
</p>
<p> Israel's relations with the confirmation states have also
included an element of friction, sometimes open and sometimes
covert, regarding water sources. The American international
expert in water matters, Joyce Starr, argues in a recently
published study that the region's water is 'dwindling away' the
explosion is a question only of time. Investigators at the
Geographical Institute in Tel Aviv, however, have a different
view. They contend that the region's problem is not a lack of
water but only of the readiness of the area's countries to
engage in cooperative action. Haifa University Professor Arnon
Sofer believes that water disputes will serve as a pretext for
war in the coming years if these countries do not take positive
steps towards peace and order. A hard, punishing drought
lasting a year or two in the Euphrates or the Jordan will
accelerate this process. "In that case, we will find ourselves
forced to fight for drinking water," he says. Various Arab
experts also have concluded that the decade of the 90's will be
characterized by struggles over the Middle East's limited water
sources. "We must expect," they say, "that Israel will want to
commandeer additional supplies of water for settling the huge
wave of Soviet immigrants. That could sharpen the struggle into
actual war."
</p>
<p> A number of factors have come together to create the
potential for conflicts over water in the region: the
geographic structure of primary water arteries--the fact that
many water sources are shared by a number of states that are not
inclined to distribute them in a fair and balanced way; the fact
that supplies of water are inadequate to the needs of all the
countries of the region, given agricultural developments and
rapid demographic growth; declining rainfall; the failure to
discover new sources of water; inefficient maintenance and
bungled management of water installations; and finally,
outright waste. It is clear that between 50 percent and 60
percent of all water in the irrigation systems in Egypt, for
example, is lost because of drainage problems and evaporation.
The same phenomenon exists on the lower Euphrates.
</p>
<p> The dispute over the waters of the Euphrates among Iraq,
Syria, and Turkey is not new but has worsened recently, chiefly
because of the progress made in Turkish projects for developing
south-east Anatolia. Turkish dams under construction in that
area are stealing vast volumes of water from her two neighbors.
The central project, the Ataturk Dam completed a year ago, adds
a new dimension to the dispute, especially in Turkish-Syrian
relations. This dam, considered the ninth of this type in the
world is located 60 km from the Syrian border. It took five
years to build at a cost of one billion dollars and rises to a
height of 170 meters. In Turkey, it is regarded as a
prestigious and beneficial project for developing the nation's
energy system. Experts expect that the extensive lands to be
watered with the aid of the dam will enable Turkey to become a
regional agricultural power or the granary of the Middle East.
The Ataturk dam is the ninth built on the Euphrates River and
experts estimate that it will fundamentally affect water
supplies available to Syria and Iraq. By the year 2005, the
Turks plan to build another 21 small dams on which 17 electric
power plants will be constructed.
</p>
<p> Syria and Iraq view the construction of these dams as a
grave threat to their own water systems. In January 1990, Turkey
cut off the flow of water in the Euphrates from Syria and Iraq
to fill the reservoir behind the Ataturk Dam. For Syria, which
relies on rainfall for its agriculture, the cutoff occurred
during a crippling drought. Talks conducted by the three
countries with an eye to fashioning a uniform water policy did
not lead to concrete results. Syria and Iraq, bitter political
enemies, found themselves allied against a common adversary,
Turkey. They are not prepared to surrender what they call their
legitimate water rights. Consequently, observers believe the
possibility cannot be excluded that the two are ready to do
battle to assure those rights. It is worth remembering that the
Iran-Iraq war broke out over a dispute about the boundary of
the Shat-al-Arab district, which is considered the richest
source of fresh water in the Gulf region.
</p>
<p> According to reports in the Iraqi media, Turkish irrigation
installations are liable to impinge on 5.5 million Iraqis who
live in the Euphrates basin. Some 4 percent of all agricultural
land in the basin will be taken out of use. Five power
generators, supplying 40 percent of Iraq's electrical needs,
will be idled, while 13 million dunams of rice growing fields--about 40 percent of the country's potential--will become
worthless. These reports are greatly exaggerated, for Iraq has
another source of water, the Hidqal, a robust river capable of
mitigating possible damage. In fact, Iraqi authorities have
already begun transferring water from the Hidqal to the
Euphrates north of Baghdad. "Iraq and Turkey," says Professor
Sofer, "have common interests most clearly in oil matters.
Turkey will find it very difficult to squeeze Iraq dry. My
guess it that they will come to some compromise allowing Iran
reasonable use of the waters of the Euphrates." Thus, Iraq's
water situation is not critical, but that fact does not prevent
the Iraqi regime from demanding that Turkey increase its
allocation of water from the Euphrates or, on the home front,
from exhorting people to use less water. A year ago, Sadam
Husayn informed his nation: "From now on, we must know how to
use less of the water we derive from the Euphrates. The water
shortage is expected to last